PredictIt promo
predictionpublic offerCA
No promo (politics only)
The real math
verified 2026-10-17| Minimum deposit | — |
|---|---|
| Playthrough | — |
| Bonus expiry | — |
| Minimum age | — |
| California | YES |
| Estimated cash value | n/a |
Sign up
Sign upPublic offer — no referral attached. Terms verified 2026-10-17.
Terms change fast — verify in the app before claiming. Full terms: No signup promo. Politics-only markets; 10% fee on profits, $3,500 position limits. CFTC no-action letter.
Their record
What this company has been in trouble for, and how the business works. Lawsuits describe allegations in complaints — not findings of liability.
Legal trouble
- 2022 — CFTC moved to withdraw PredictIt's no-action relief (CFTC 14-130), alleging violations, ordering wind-down of open contracts — Challenged in court. source
- 2022-09-12 — Clarke v. CFTC (W.D. Tex.): Aristotle, traders and academic researchers sued, arguing the no-action withdrawal was arbitrary and unexplained — Court sided with plaintiffs; CFTC issued amended no-action letter July 2025 (operation shifted to Prediction Market Research Consortium; $3,500/contract cap). source
- 2026-09-29 — House Oversight Committee expanded insider-trading probe to PredictIt/Aristotle entities — records on identity verification, suspicious-trading controls demanded — Pending. source
How they get you
- 10% fee on profits (not stakes) — cost only visible on wins Shrouded pricing.
Named mechanism = the behavioral trick each practice runs on.
Money & lobbying
- Operated by Aristotle International (John Aristotle Phillips); Aristotle's exchange entities acquired by Underdog (2026); politics-only, not-for-profit academic framing.